Late cycle signals in US.

Cyclicality is one of the underlying inevitabilities of macroeconomics and, after one of the longest bull markets in U.S. history, the U.S. economy is finally showing signs that it has entered a late cycle phase. The first of these signals is one of the classic tell-tale recession indicators – an inverted yield curve. Sections of Read More…

Latin American Growth Environment

A look at the growth in Latin America reveals slower and relatively volatile attributes, even when adjusted for its’ emerging market classification. GDP growth in Latin America equaled 2.8 percent on average between 2000 and 2016. Peru has been the quickest growing Latin averaging 5.2 percent per year. Regional growth’s volatility has been attributed to Read More…

US Corporate High Yield Credit

Shortly after US Corporate High Yield credit spreads reached their tightest levels, investors are now worried that the credit cycle is turning, evident in last year’s abrupt about- face in spreads. Investors are aware that the economy remains the most important driver of defaults but appear to underestimate forecasts of US GDP growth remaining above Read More…

Japanese Equities: Foreign Withdrawal

Investors might already know the major impact foreign investors have on Japan’s equity market. Japanese equity returns tend to have a relatively strong correlation with the net inflows or outflows of foreign investors. This was witnessed in 2018 when Japanese equities decline of 16% occurred along with the largest foreign outflows since the global financial Read More…

The Investment and Innovation Status in the United States

The US benefits from long-term structural advantages through its investment-friendly economy. A level of innovation and productivity, favorable demographics and its strong institutions are all factors that support better-quality economic and earnings growth. The US ranks in the top 10% of all countries across economic freedom, ease of doing business, global competitiveness and world governance Read More…

Energy Mix Transitions: Looking Towards 2050

The worldwide evolution of energy systems represents a hallmark of modern times. This trend is expected to not just continue, but accelerate; car fuel, heating systems, and industry power sources in the coming decades are projecting drastic changes attributed to regulation and innovation. Taking a look at the demand perspective, Global demand for energy is projected to peak around the Read More…

Evolution of the Global Supply Chain

Amidst political winds, true changes in the nature of globalization can easily get overlooked. Globalization drastically transitioned in the mid-2000s, where physical goods became less trade-intensive. Though it is true that output and trade continue in growth (in absolute terms), a smaller percentage of goods off the world’s assembly lines is now traded across borders. Read More…

Market Outlook – Entering 2019

As investors enter 2019, the two largest economies in the world, the U.S. and China, both face challenges. First, will U.S. financial markets have a soft, bumpy or hard landing following the peak earnings and growth cycle seen in 2018? Second, will stimulus policies in China stabilize growth conditions in the year ahead? Resolutions for Read More…